The Game Plan: Middle of the Draft

Wednesday, August 10th, 2011 at 9:03 pm

Each year, I urge fantasy competitors to do more than read our material, more than rank specific to their league settings, even more than mock draft countless times before the real deal. Even the seemingly most prepared of fantasy football drafters can do more. Thus, I give you the Game Plan.

In the Game Plan, we visualize how a draft will unfold from the first pick to the last. Invariably, soft spots appear in each draft where value can be had at each position. Anticipating those upcoming soft spots when making earlier selections will leave you better prepared to walk away from your draft with the best possible chance at taking home a title.

Since not all draft slots are created equal, we break the Game Plan into three parts: Front of the Draft (Tuesday), Middle of the Draft (today) and Back of the Draft (tomorrow). Assuming we’re discussing standard 12-team leagues, this leaves us with four relevant picks in each section of the Game Plan. In this article, we’ll discuss the Middle of the Draft, your Game Plan if you own one of the middle four picks in your league.

Round 1

With a top four pick, I think you only have one option: RB. When you pick fifth through eighth, things get a little bit dicier. I still think you should aim for a top-six back, one of Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson and LeSean McCoy.

If those guys are all off the board when you pick sixth or seventh, or you have a vendetta against one, your next option is simple: Michael Vick. If you go this route, plan on picking up Vince Young with the last pick of the draft, just in case.

If you can’t land a top RB or Vick, your last option with the eighth slot is to take Andre Johnson, the game’s best receiver. Consolation prize hardly seems like the right word in this instance.

Round 2

Your Round 2 strategy will likely be dictated by your first pick. If you were able to get a running back, you’ll want to scoop up a top-five receiver in the second round, likely either Hakeem Nicks or Larry Fitzgerald. Don’t reach for another receiver if both guys are off the board.

If you took Johnson or Vick in the first round, your best option is to go running back in the second. If the top five WRs are off the board, it’s simply what you must do regardless of your first pick. There are worse places to be than the owner of two top 10 fantasy backs. Darren McFadden, Frank Gore, Matt Forte, Steven Jackson and Peyton Hillis are the guys you’re targeting.

Round 3

In Round 3, the time is perfect to take a quarterback if you haven’t done so. Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Drew Brees are all part of the elite at the position, just as deserving of a high pick as Aaron Rodgers (who likely was drafted a full round earlier). If Peyton Manning is pronounced healthy by the time you draft, he obviously belongs in that group as well.

If you already have a quarterback, you’ll want to grab a WR1 like Mike Wallace or Miles Austin. If you don’t like the WRs available, go with another running back.

At this time, you’ll either have: QB1, RB1, WR1; or QB1, RB1, RB2.

Round 4

There’s value to be had both at RB and WR with your next two picks. If you only have one RB after your first three selections, the fourth round is the right time to grab a guy like Ryan Grant or DeAngelo Williams.

If you already have two RBs on your team, use this opportunity to grab your WR1. Brandon Marshall, Brandon Lloyd, Wes Welker, Dez Bryant, Santonio Holmes or Steve Johnson should be yours.

Round 5

With your fifth pick, take your second WR. Any of those guys mentioned above is fine, and Chad Ochocino is garnering a lot of buzz after heading to New England. I actually prefer Percy Harvin, who is finally over his chronic migraines and poised to have a big season.

After the fifth round, you should have: QB1, RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2.

Round 6

At this point you have a decision to make — go with a third receiver or a third running back? Quality RB3s are harder to find; however, don’t feel you have to reach for a running back just to build good depth. I think you have good options in the seventh at the RB position, more so than at WR. Percy Harvin and Mario Manningham are two guys I love this year, and if you can get one as your WR3, you should have one of the best WR groups in your league.

Round 7

You’ll definitely need to add a RB3 at this point. You’re looking for a quality name that may have slipped a bit, someone like Marshawn Lynch, Joseph Addai, Fred Jackson or Beanie Wells. If they’re all gone, you can still grab a quality RB3 by reaching a tad for Mike Tolbert of Brandon Jacobs.

After Round 7, you’ll have: QB1, RB1, RB2, RB3, WR1, WR2, WR3.

Round 8

Our receivers should look very strong, and we already have an elite quarterback. Without much going on at the TE position at this portion of the draft, we should continue to pound the RBs. You may have taken either Jacobs or Tolbert last round; take the other one here. If they have been taken, you could also go with one of the many rookies that are drafted around this point: Roy Helu and Ryan Williams. Williams is especially attractive if you’ve already taken Beanie Wells as a RB3.

Round 9

Now is the time to take your TE, and I suggest you target Rob Gronkowski or possibly Zach Miller. If neither are available, you can wait till your next pick and get Kellen Winslow. In that case, grab another WR here, or if you have Manning and need to feel more comfortable at QB, pick a quality backup with upside like Sam Bradford, Matthew Stafford or Joe Flacco.

At the end of Round 9, you should have: QB1, RB1, RB2, RB3, RB4, WR1, WR2, WR3, TE1.

Round 10

If a quality upside play at QB is available, you may as well take them here if you didn’t in the last round. That could include Bradford, Stafford or even Kevin Kolb. If there are no QBs you like, or if you’re confident rolling with my “real NFL backup” strategy, take a receiver. You should be able to add underrated options like Lance Moore, Danny Amendola and Roy Williams, or potentially some bigger names should they slide.

Round 11

Go ahead and grab another RB in the 11th round. Guys like Tim Hightower, Rashad Jennings, Willis McGahee and Darren Sproles could potentially pay off big. Or, you could use this pick to handcuff one of your top backs. If you have Jamaal Charles, take Thomas Jones. If you have Arian Foster, take Ben Tate. You get the picture.

At this point, you’ll have: QB1, RB1, RB2, RB3, RB4, RB5, WR1, WR2, WR3, WR4, TE1.

Round 12

Not having a backup QB this deep into the draft may be a bit unsettling, but since you have an elite option at the position, very little should be invested in a backup. That’s why I wait till this level to take a solid QB2 like Kyle Orton, Ryan Fitzpatrick or the like. If your QB1 has a quality NFL backup (i.e., Rivers and Billy Volek), you could also choose to wait and use your final pick on that real-life backup. If your QB1 makes it to the bye healthy, you’ll be able to cut that backup for a one-week starter, then cut that one-week starter to pick the backup back up.

Rounds 13, 14 and 15

So, this is probably where you think you’ll finally take a defense and kicker. Not so. Kickers are a dime-a-dozen, and standard league settings are begging you to play matchups with defenses throughout the season. It really doesn’t matter who you take at each position right now, so you may as well wait to add one of each in free agency a few days before the season starts.

If you see a receiver with potential that you like, you should use your other pick on him. I would spend a pick on guys like Danario Alexander, Davone Bess, Greg Little or anyone else I feel has a shot at surprising early. If that option doesn’t exist, take another running back. Your main focus should be guys that have a chance at becoming a lead back in the preseason, either through injury or by winning the job. Guys that could qualify include Delone Carter, Tashard Choice, Tate, Toby Gerhart, Marion Barber, and so on. All your looking for at this point is a lottery ticket.

Grab yourself as many running backs as you can. Again, it sounds like over-kill, but injuries do happen. So does ineffectiveness. These are lottery tickets, guys that could pay off big before the season starts, giving you a surplus at the most important position in fantasy football. Monitor pre-season action and practice tidbits to see which unknown guy could potentially emerge.

More often than not, these will be late-round or undrafted rookies. Johnny White in Buffalo? Stevan Ridley or Shane Vereen in New England? Bilal Powell with the Jets? Evan Royster in Washington? Bernard Scott, Jalen Parmele, Brandon Jackson, Javon Ringer, Tashard Choice, Jason Snelling, Earnest Graham, Justin Forsett and others like them could go from nobody to somebody in the blink of an eye. If you can land a handcuff for your own top running backs, that’s a bonus — you’re protected in case the worst happens over the next few weeks.

Remember, you’ll have the chance to cut the two guys on your team that appear the least likely to help you out before the season starts in order to add a kicker and defense.