31
Jul
2008
Posted by Corey Koehler as Fantasy Football Draft, Fantasy Football Sleeper, Fantasy Football Strategy, Fantasy Football Tip, NFL Commentary
Here’s something to help get your wheels turning in preparation for your fantasy football draft. After devouring every podcast, scanning the mock draft results over on Fantasy Football Calculator’s ADP tool and reading piece after piece of fantasy football information over the past few weeks, I have started to compile a list of players who I - and other poeple in the know - think will either provide great value in your fantasy football draft or simply come out of nowhere to help out your squad.
So here they are, a few players who are not getting a ton of respect… which is fine when they are falling to you.
Mark Bulger QB (STL) - Last year his line was hammered and then so was he. They Rams lost a few o-line starters for the entire season - including the All-Pro left tackle Orlando Pace - and there was only one man who started 16 games on the line - each at different position.
He has been the 12th QB taken which mean poeple are forgetting that just a year ago - with a healthy line - he was considered top 6. That equals value. You could stock up running backs and receivers when you can get a QB A guy like this later in the draft.
With a healthy line and a suspect defense expect the Rams offense to bounce back and be required to score often.
Jake Delhomme Q (CAR) - If his shoulder holds up - and there is no reason to think it won’t at this point - Jake offers tremendous value being the 14th QB taken on average. His line will be healthy, he has Steve Smith, old reliable Moose and newcomer D.J. Hackett. All of which should be able to help him get into the swing of things.
Thomas Jones RB (NYJ) - An upgraded line and weak schedule versus the run could equal a return to the top ten for Thomas Jones this year. He is getting up there in age but the man has some pride. I don’t think it is a stretch for him to go over 1000 yards and pick up 10+ TD’s this year and getting production like that in the 4th or 5th round is a pretty good deal. UPDATE: Brett Favre now with the Jets has to create a few more opportunities for Jone. Good news and I like it but it may bring a little more attention from other owners at this point and reduce the whole “sleeper/value pick”value.
Ernest Graham RB (TB) - Ernest also has a good line, will be the primary runner and yet he is getting no respect. On average, he has been the 22nd running back taken. Even if Warrick Dunn steals a few carries it won’t be in the red zone. And what about the Cadillac? I for one won’t be holding my breath. He shouldn’t be a factor until late in the season if at all.
Ricky Williams RB (MIA) - I see Ronnie Brown getting the love everywhere but last time I checked, he isn’t even on the practice field and has even admitted that “I have a long way to go.” Ricky has been looking great in practice and is on a mission to shake his past. Don’t believe me, read this Miami Herald article. Bottom line, he will come very cheap and you could do alot worse with some of your late round picks.
Bobby Engram WR (SEA) - With Deion Branch in serious doubt until late in the season and D.J. Hackett catching balls in Carolina, someone has to get the ball in a very pass happy offense. Why not Mr. Old Reliable? Sure he wants more cash but he’s old school, a gamer and most importantly in camp. You could get him late and have a very solid WR2 or WR3 on your hand hands (maybe even better in PPR leagues).
Chad Jackson WR (NE) - I am not completely sold on this myself but I think that Doug at Football Burrito made a compelling case in our bloggers mock draft.
He said - “In week 12 of the 2007 season the Eagles decided to get physical with Randy Moss bumping him at the line with help over the top. Moss was shut down, and from week 12 through the play-offs other teams copied the Eagles approach. With Moss shut down, Welker got 143 yards receiving against the Eagle and for the rest of the year Moss hardly did anything while Welker flourished. This is not a small sample size either we are talking about 9 games! While one of your friends grabs Randy Moss in the first round, grab Welker in the 4th and remind them every week when Welker outperforms Moss.”
Ben Utecht TE (CIN) - The former Colt is now with the Bengals. The word is that he should be in line to pick up Chris Henry’s work. You and I both know that their offense can get it done and we both know that their defense can’t get it done. Sooo there should be plenty of balls to go around in Cinci right? I’d give you his ADP but I can’t find it. Now hows that for a sleeper.
Baltimore D - Think about it, last year at this time they were considered an elite fantasy defense but then the injury bug hit, their offense barely helped and the slowly faded. Now they are healthy. So once the run on defenses starts, don’t worry. Chances are you’ll be able to snap up the Ravens a little later than usual this year. They have been the 10th defense taken on average in mock drafts according to Fantasy Football Calculator’s ADP tool.
Or did I miss anyone? Feel free to offer up your opinion in the comments below.
Oh, and stay tuned. This list is only about half complete right now. I am sure I will come up with more and more as training camps progress.
So hang out with us this year because, in case you didn’t know, subscribing to the Goat is at the all time low price of free. You can subscribe to The Fantasy Football Goat by email and have this stuff in your inbox seconds after I post it or you can subscribe in your feed reader or on your home page. Either way you get the info fast and easy. Don’t understand this whole subscribing thing? Check out this short video on RSS and this video series I put together to get ALL of your fantasy football news lighting fast. Isn’t technology great?
22 Responses
Jacob from Fantasy Football Fools
July 31st, 2008 at
1Utecht is my sleeper tight end. It was Crumpler, but he’s gotten too much hype to be a sleeper anymore this year. People are too excited to see him play. Marcedes Lewis could also be a sleeper tight end this year, but it depends how much talk there is about him leading up to the draft.
Lee
July 31st, 2008 at
2Seems like we just had this conversation Corey…lol.
So we talked about Utecht. You called him a sleeper, I pretty much called you crazy because the Bengals don’t use TE.
2007 Reggie Kelly 20 catches for 211 yards, no TD’s
2006 Reggie Kelly 21 catches for 254 yards 1 TD
2005 Reggie Kelly 15 for 90, 1 TD
On the other side, Utecht was considered a pretty decent pickup off the market. I don’t think it was so much that they will change their offense to use the TE more.
ffexchange
July 31st, 2008 at
3I agree pretty much with all of them, although I don’t love Engram. Lee, maybe Cincy has never used a TE because they’ve had Reggie Kelly and Matt Schobel.
I also expect Chad Johnson to have as good or better a year than he recent averages suggest. He has agreed to have contract talks after the season (contract year?), his surgery is supposed to have fixed a lingering problem, and he is supposed to be ready for the season. He’s flaky, but his ADP is low for someone who regularly puts up his stats.
Corey Koehler
July 31st, 2008 at
4Thanks Jacob,
It is good to know I’m not alone. Mercedes Lewis is interesting too. I followed him closely and he ended up on a few of my waiver wire lists early last year but he didn’t do a whole heck of a lot. That said, with all of the injuries to the Jags WR corp it could be a chance for him to step up.
We’ll see.
Corey Koehler
July 31st, 2008 at
5Thanks Lee,
The problem I see with your argument is that you keep mentioning this guy named Reggie Kelly. Maybe he didn’t get any action because he sucked or catching passes wasn’t his forte’.
But we all have our opinions. We’ll see.
Corey Koehler
July 31st, 2008 at
6Thanks FFE,
Engram isn’t a guy to love, but he just seems to get it done year in and year out. You could do worse where he’s getting drafted.
As far a Chad Johnson goes, I’ve never been very big on him. As good as his stats have been, they are not consistent. One week he goes off and then he doesn’t do anything for 1,2 or even 3 weeks. Thats fine if your team can weather the storm but I like guys who can perform more consistently. That said, I think you bring up some interesting points to consider for this year.
Jordan
August 1st, 2008 at
7You might add Malcome Kelly to the sleeping WR.Even tho I don’t see him doing anything.And a sleeping QB could be Aaron Rodgers.One more suugestion.Kevin Boss could be a sleeper at tight end now that Shockey is gone.
Cellar Dwellers
August 1st, 2008 at
8I see kevin boss as my te sleeper he has huge upside and very good size for use in redzone
Corey Koehler
August 1st, 2008 at
9Jordan,
Thanks for stopping. I think that those are all good suggestions. Although I’m not sure why you’d throw Kelly out there if you don’t see him doing anything (unless i am misunderstanding something). But it should be interesting if the Skins are going to throw the ball as much as anticipated and - the key here - are successful doing it. Jason Campbell is learning yet another offense but we’ll see since it is supposed to be a system he was successful with in college. We’ll see.
I thought about Boss but there has been so much talk since the Shockey trade, I figured he would start slipping out of sleeper mode.
Aaron Rodgers is an interesting case and one that I debated with Lee from FootballJabber on the podcast I will be publishing tommorrow. Check that out. Lee is in your corner and I am to an extent but …you’ll have to listen to get a feel for how I feel.
Thanks for stopping and for the input!
Corey Koehler
August 1st, 2008 at
10Hey Cellar Dwellers,
Thanks for stopping. My thoughts on Boss are above in my reply to Jordan. Good thinking and thanks for the suggestion.
Daily Haze | The Hazean
August 1st, 2008 at
11[…] More sleepers and value picks. [Fantasy Football Goat] […]
Lee
August 2nd, 2008 at
12My thinking is more along the lines that they didn’t HAVE to have Reggie Kelly. They kept using him and must have been content with what they wanted to do if they kept him around as the TE. They did go and get Utecht so maybe they have different thoughts this year. When Matt Schobel was in town his numbers were about the same.
So, with that, if the Bengals are going to be changing their offense to use the TE more, Utecht could be a fine sleeper. But for me right now I don’t have any reason to think that the TE position in Cincy will have more than 300 yards and a few TD’s until they take the field. If he gets some targets early, sure, jump on him.
MyFantasyLineup
August 4th, 2008 at
13I have to agree with Bulger being overlooked by a lot of fantasy football players. If his line is healthy again his stats will be great.
Corey Koehler
August 4th, 2008 at
14Thanks MFL,
The line is the key here. Now lets hope his running back gets in there soon.
Steve Pelosi
August 4th, 2008 at
15While I believe Engram will put up solid numbers, I believe that the real sleeper is Nate Burleson. He came on last year, and this year has no one to compete with except Engram for catches. Also an underrated deep threat.
Corey Koehler
August 4th, 2008 at
16Thanks for stopping Steve,
Engram qualifies - in my eyes - as more of a value pick. I can agree with you on Burleson on the sleeper front. Thanks again for stopping.
Advisor
August 6th, 2008 at
17I agree with Delhomme and Bulger totally. Thomas Jones certainly and even Graham to a certain extent.
Baltimore DST is an interesting pick. How about the Bear’s DST though with Mike Brown and Nathan Vasher returning. If they stay healthy along with Ogunleye, T. Harris, Urlacher, Briggs, etc. and the most prolific returner in the NFL they will be a sleeper group worhty of top 5 status. Last year they struggled some but they could bounce back strong.
Crumpler could be a sleeper with no WRs in Tenn.
Selvin Young is my breakout candidate for 2008
Steve Slaton is my late round flier, super sleeper.
Nice Post, visit my blog at http://www.footballcalls.com maybe we could link up.
Corey Koehler
August 6th, 2008 at
18Thanks Advisor,
I am not high on the Bears d but it isn’t out of the question if they can get a running game going to keep the D rested.
I agree with Crumpler but here’s my thinking, I figured most poeple would think the same thing so which wouldn’t make him much of a sleeper or even a value pick.
Selvin Young is a solid bet. And Steve Slaton…there a juicy super sleeper pick. Not out of the question considering the injury laden crew ahead of him.
Thanks again and I will stop by.
Eagles
August 10th, 2008 at
19I love Thomas Jones this year, I’m just having trouble seeing why so many people are high on Graham.
Corey Koehler
August 10th, 2008 at
20Thanks Eagles,
I think it is the fact that Graham had 10 td’s without even being the starter for a full year. If he goes a full year without any setbacks he has just as good a chance as many other backs to get 1000 and 10+ which would put him in or around a top ten RB. I’ll take that especially if you get a chance to snag him a little later than most backs in his projection range.
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August 11th, 2008 at
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