18
Oct
2007
Posted by Corey Koehler as Fantasy Football Sleeper, Fantasy Football Start Em Sit Em, Fantasy Football Strategy, Fantasy Football Tip
Did you know that Vinnie Testaverde outperformed Brett Favre, Vince Young and Kurt Warner last Sunday? Crazy isn’t it? Well this week I looked and I looked and I think I found a prediction almost as ludicrous.
But, before I tell you who and why, here’s a little reminder of how I have things set up. I list two players who I think deserve a start and two players that I think should ride the pine. Also, I have another section that will deal with some of the gray area associated with some players.
This section is called Sleepers: Don’t be surprised if. It will deal with players who, regardless of stature, will perform better or worse than expected. Rather than tell you that you should start or sit these players - since I do not know every circumstance surrounding your team in particular - I am just offering up a little food for thought for those of you who have tough decisions to make this weekend. So lets get to it.
Start’em if you got’em
Jeff Garcia QB (TB) - Is it just me or does it seem like everyone that plays Detroit - except my Vikings - get their passing game going? No reason that should stop this Sunday. Jeff has held his own this year against much stiffer competition. Last week he threw for 274 and a TD versus a very solid Titans defense. The week before that he posted two TD’s against Indy. There is no reason the Lions can’t yield 275 and, I’ll go big, 3 TD’s.
Final stats: 37/45 for 316, 2 td’s and 10 rush yards.
Final thoughts: Almost had that 3rd TD but Garcia fumbled on a first down and goal at the one. Tampa dominated the game but found a way to lose it.Washington D - This defense is playing great right now. They are third in total defense, third in passing defense and seventh against the run. Did I mention 10th in sacks? Now just think of what they could do to a rusty journeyman at home. Look for the Skins to just abuse Tim Rattay and the Arizona Cardinals this week. Perfect bye week defense. Hell, its possible they could be laying around on your waiver wire yet. Mark them down for 13 points allowed, 5 sacks, 3 picks and a TD.
Final stats: 19 points allowed, 1 sack, 2 picks, 2 fumble recoveries and a TD.
Final thoughts: Pretty surprised they only had one sack. Kudos to the Arizona line.
Sit’em if you got’em
Minnesota D - They are my team but I have to call a spade a spade. They are last at stopping the pass and they are playing Dallas, the third best team in the league at slinging it. If you have a better option, use it. Ouch! 28+ points allowed, 1 sack, 1 turnover.
Final stats: 24 points allowed, 2 fumble recoveries and 3 sacks.
Final thoughts: They actually didn’t do to bad containing the Cowboys but the offense couldn’t stay on the field. They had a defensive touchdown called back because of a penalty.Brian Greise QB (CHI) - Bad news for Brian this week; he’s not playing Minnesota or Detroit. Instead he will be playing on the road against the Eagles who are 10th against the pass and are quietly getting healthier. 150 yards, 1 garbage TD, a fumble and 3 ints.
Final stats: 27/41 for 322 and a TD
Final thoughts: Pretty solid game. Took them on a long game winning drive and didn’t turn the ball over. Downgrade the Eagles pass defense and give Greise props. He gets Detroit next week.Tom Brady QB (NE) - Last year Miami shutout the Pats and treated Brady like their perty new cellmate. This year… I’m just messing with you to see if you are paying attention (remember that whole opening bit about Vinnie? Kidding there too. I just thought it was worth mentioning). Anyway, for the record, the Pats really did get shutout by them last year. Not sure how that happened. But hey, there is no way in hell that happens this week. While we are on the subject, how about a few Brady stats predictions. I see 500 yards passing, 10 touchdowns and another week on the injury report with that sore arm.
Final stats: 354 and 6 TD’s. Perfect passer rating by the way.
Final thoughts: I was just joking and I wasn’t far off. Wow. Can you say fantasy God!
Sleepers: Don’t be surprised if…
Kevin Jones RB (DET) has a solid day against Tampa Bay. Outside of the fact that Tampa Bay is 21st against the run I don’t have many stats to support my position. I just know that he has been slowly working his way back into the line-up. And now that he has had a full bye weeks worth of work with the first team, I think he is finding his rhythm. Also, I think that the Lions are going to try and run more to keep the defense from teeing off on Kitna (the Lions have allowed 25 sacks this year, most in the NFL). This is almost a complete gut call; I bet he gets 150+ all purpose yards, a touchdown and about 4 receptions.
Final stats: 76 rushing, 34 receiving on 6 catches and a TD.
Final thoughts: Looks like the Lions were actually trying to run in this one. Even Duckett had 4 for 30 yards. Promising day all around for Kevin Jones owners.Tavaris Jackson QB (MIN) has a solid outing against the Cowboys. Last week if his receivers could have just held on to the ball, he would’ve had much better stats and maybe even another touchdown. This week he will need to hang with the Cowboys who, by the way, are 24th against the pass and bang up to boot. Adrian Peterson gets all of the attention this week and takes the pressure off Tavaris. He goes for 250+, 2+ touchdowns (one to AP of course) and one int.
Final stats: 9 for 16 for 72 yards and 20 yards rushing.
Final thoughts: After shoing promise against the Bears last week he regressed big time. He looked terrible and I don’t think I’ll be picking him for again awhile, if ever.
As always, that is not all my friend. You can get more in-depth NFL player projections throughout the week by checking out the Bruno Boys website over on MVN.com. Also, be on the lookout for the weekly fantasy football start’em sit’em podcast I co-host with Marc Caviglia.
If you think you are good and want to compete for some weekly cash, stop over to Fantasy Sports Live. You can submit a new line-up every week and win real cash playing in 8, 10 and 12 team leagues. Hell, just go head to head with some other fantasy fanatics and win $80 like I have the last two weeks.
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33 Responses
The Gman
October 19th, 2007 at
1Yikes! You really had me worried when I saw Tom Brady under sit em. I’m glad you were just kidding.
Corey Koehler
October 19th, 2007 at
2Thanks for comment Gman,
Yeah I was hoping that would spice things up a bit. Glad it worked.
-Corey
Ron
October 19th, 2007 at
3Benching McNabb for Garcia (one qb per start) and stuck between T. Henry or S. Holmes as my Flex… Any opinions?
Corey Koehler
October 19th, 2007 at
4Thanks for asking Ron,
McNabb for Garcia is a gutsy call but I think this is as good a week as any to do.
T. Henry and S. Holmes….hmmm. They are pretty even considering the strength of Pitts run D and Denver’s pass d. I think Pitt will concentrate on running because Denver is so weak in that area. Hell, even when Pit does pass they are really spreading the ball around which means Holmes touches will be less than Henry’s. In seemingly even matchups like this I would always side with the running in flex situations.
Hope that helps and good luck on Sunday.
-Corey
Vin
October 19th, 2007 at
5I got Peyton Manning and Jeff Garcia on my fantasy team (1 QB starts). Manning is going against a strong defense in Jax without Harrison, and Garcia is supposedly gonna have a big game against Detroit who has terrible pass d.
Manning always finds a way to get the ball to his receivers, but does anyone think this would be the one time to make an exception and start Garcia? Any thoughts?
Corey Koehler
October 19th, 2007 at
6Hey Vin,
Thanks for stoppin’.
Wow, that is a loaded question. I am the kind of guy that never sits his studs and Manning is a stud. Bad match-up or not they can go off at any time. If your gut tells you to, do it. Otherwise I’d hate for you to be kicking yourself Tuesday morning after Manning steps up.
-Corey
Drew
October 19th, 2007 at
7I would go with S. Holmes, if healthy, over Henry. Baily is hurting and the Steelers will call a couple of deep passes to Holmes, usually do every game and Roethlisberger is not afraid to let it fly. The Steelers are very stout against the run and are not to worried about Cutler beating.
As far as Manning between Garcia, its tough to sit Manning for anyone except Brady right now. With that being said Manning as not fair very well against the Jags over the last couple of years. He’s avg. 245 yds and has thrown just 3 td’s against the Jags in his last 4 games. But like Corey said its still tough to sit Manning, gotta go with him over Garcia.
Corey Koehler
October 19th, 2007 at
8Thanks Drew,
Great point on Holmes. You mention his health. He burned me a few weeks ago in a few leagues with that late scratch so I still have a slightly bad taste in my mouth.
But overall, I’m still sticking with the more touches approach.
-Corey
Drew
October 19th, 2007 at
9What do you think of the prospect of Lee Evans breaking out this week now that McAlister is out for the game? I’m forced to start him this week because it sounds like Andre Johnson is out again this week.
Corey Koehler
October 19th, 2007 at
10Drew,
As bad as he has stunk it up this year it is not an easy call. But, if there are not any better options available, I say roll with him. The Ravens secondary hasn’t been great anyway and now that the CM is out, even better.
Contrary to what everyone seems to be thinking, I think the Bills will come to play and give the Ravens a run for their money. Evan could be be a part of that.
-Corey
John
October 19th, 2007 at
11I like the Tarvaris Jackson call, at some point he will connect on a couple TD passes and run one in. I’m thinking 2 TD’s (running or throwing) this week are a strong possibility, meaning he’s a solid #2 in deep leagues.
Corey Koehler
October 19th, 2007 at
12Thanks for the comment John,
I love it when you guys agree with me. lol
Have a great day.
-Corey
FanProphet - Fantasy Sports » Great Sites and My Very First Call Out Session
October 19th, 2007 at
13[…] can also check out a great source of information in the Fantasy Football Goats Start ‘em Sit ‘em and Sleepers for Week 7. BTW, check out the player of the week Adrian […]
Greg
October 19th, 2007 at
14Who should I start at QB this week between Huard and Kitna, I’m fighting for the #1 position in my league and really need this win!!!
Corey Koehler
October 20th, 2007 at
15Hi Greg,
I will give you my opinion but you must be doing pretty good at making these calls yourself, otherwise you wouldn’t be playing for first. Congrats on that!
I personally would go with Kitna. The Lions are pass happy. It is their bread and butter.
Huard on the other hand plays in a fairly conservative offense that may look to run more this weekend. Larry Johnson ussuallt had pretty good success against the Raiders.
-Corey
Jeff
October 20th, 2007 at
16Hey, I was just wondering if you could help me out with my kicker and wide receivers. I have Wes Welker, Roddy White, Santonia Holmes and Marques Colston. Which one should I sit? On the kicker side, I have Shayne Graham and Kris Brown, which one should I start? Thanks!
Corey Koehler
October 20th, 2007 at
17Hey Jeff,
First, thanks for stoppin’.
I guess I would probably sit Roddy White out of that group. He is the most unknown especially with Leftwich coming in. Welker is on an awesome offense. Santonio will be matched up against a banged up Champ Bailey (see above) and Colston is still a go- to guy on a team that is starting to heat up.
As far as a kicker…hmmm. Thats always sort of a crap shoot. Either one is solid. Here’s how I look at it. Cinci will score alot but chances are they may be all TD’s. But, Houston will be in a defensive ball control slash field position type game. Plus Houston seems to get stopped in the redzone often. Brown has been hot lately, I would stick with the hot hand (or should I say foot).
-Corey
Jeff
October 20th, 2007 at
18Thanks a lot for your help, Corey!
Vin
October 20th, 2007 at
19One more question for you guys. I got Portis, Brandon Jacobs and Jerious Norwood in a 2RB league. Portis obviously gets to start, but who would you recommend take the second starting position? Norwood had a big game last week and seems to be getting more touches than Dunn. And with Ward injured, I figured Jacobs would get the start, but he too is now listed as questionable. Do you think Coughlin would give the start to Droughns and give his feature backs limited touches?
In a second 2RB league, I have Thomas Jones, Jones-Drew, and Earnest Graham. Jones gets the start for sure. Jones-Drew is inconsistent, and Graham is gonna be playing extra hard knowing Bennett is waiting to take his starting job. Any thoughts?
Mario
October 20th, 2007 at
20I have M. Harrison, S. Moss, P. Burress, and Roddy White. Whom do I start. It seems Harrison (I hope) and Plaxico are musts, but the other two haven’t been exactly stellar. I can start 3.
Similar situation in the RB spots. I can start 2. I have D. Ward and B. Jacobs from the Giants. I like the matchup and am tempted to start both. I also have Marion Barber and Ahman Green as RB options, and just picked up M. Bennett (now Tampa) on the wire. Normally love Barber and don’t like starting two runners from the same team, but the week seems not great for Barber, Green has done just about zip for the season, and NYG should run a lot. Whom do I start?
Corey Koehler
October 20th, 2007 at
21No problem Jeff,
Good luck this weekend.
Corey
Jason
October 20th, 2007 at
22For my #rd Wide receiver this week who should i start Dwayne Bowe, Ronald Curry or Ike Hillard Im leaning towards Hillard
Corey Koehler
October 20th, 2007 at
23Vin,
Not sure where to start with the Giants mess. Not sure how Tom Coughlin will do it. Always tricky trying to guess how a three back situation is going to work out. Jacobs is solid if he gets the start but there is the TD vulturing Droughns. If they all play Ward will get his touches too. Watch Sunday morning, if they all play go with Norwood who has a good match-up. If only one or two Giants guys go give them a shot.
Tough call but T Jones showed some promise and he plays a very bad Cinci unit…kind of a gamble considering his down year so far, but I like his chances again this week. Jones-Drew was good against the Colts last year and he is starting to heat up. He has more potential for big plays I like him. Graham hasn’t shown much and it is hard to say what the split will be this week with Bennett. They said they were going to put a package in for Bennett but didn’t say how big. Graham to me seems like the biggest wild card.
-Corey
Corey Koehler
October 20th, 2007 at
24Thanks for asking Jason,
To me it is between Bowe and Hilliard. I like Curry but he is up and down with C-Pep and KC has been solid on D lately.
I get the feeling the Chief will want to runb the ball. LJ always lights up the Raiders. Bowe would probably rank higher than Hilliard on most cheatsheets right now but Hilliard has been quietly getting it done and plays the Lions.
If you want the best rated guy, go with Bowe. If you like taking chances against a very good match-ups Hilliards the guy. I lean towards Hilliard myself.
-Corey
Corey Koehler
October 20th, 2007 at
25Hey Mario,
Thanks for stopping by.
I have a similar situation in one of my leagues. White is kind of an unknown with Leftwich coming in. I am thinking feast or famine with him. The Saints do give up big plays but who knows who Leftwich will throw to.
I am going with Moss. He is on a better offense and, not that this is a scientific answer or anything, BUT, he was pretty vocal about how bad he felt about that fumble which may have cost the Skins the game last week. I am betting he comes out on a mission this week to make up for last weeks fumble.
For your Giants running backs read comment #23 above. I give my thoughts on that dice roll.
To me Barber is a guy you start regardless of match-up plus they do pass it to him and he is more times than not the redzone guy. Green plays a tough defense and doesn’t get much action in the redzone so I might lean towards Jacobs here if he plays.
-Corey
Corey Koehler
October 20th, 2007 at
26Hey Mario,
Thanks for stopping by.
I have a similar situation in one of my leagues. White is kind of an unknown with Leftwich coming in. I am thinking feast or famine with him. The Saints do give up big plays but who knows who Leftwich will throw to.
I am going with Moss. He is on a better offense and, not that this is a scientific answer or anything, BUT, he was pretty vocal about how bad he felt about that fumble which may have cost the Skins the game last week. I am betting he comes out on a mission this week to make up for last weeks fumble. GIVE ME THE DAMN BALL JASON!
For your Giants running backs read comment #23 above. I give my thoughts on that dice roll.
To me Barber is a guy you start regardless of match-up plus they do pass it to him and he is more times than not the redzone guy. Green plays a tough defense and doesn’t get much action in the redzone so I might lean towards Jacobs here if he plays.
-Corey
mike
October 21st, 2007 at
27Corey,
I have a flex position question I was hoping for some insight on. I have chris cooley who has been hot as of late and maybe a popular target as s. moss and randle-el have been banged up the past 2 weeks. I have kevin jones, who I know you like. Normally I would not think of starting a tight end over a number one back, however chris cooley has been a stud and getting into the endzone consistently and detroit is a very pass happy offense. Any insights would be much appreciated. Thank you.
Mike
Mario
October 21st, 2007 at
28Thanks, Corey. I agree. Barber has the heart of a lion and can always break one. I’m going to start Ward and Barber and monitor Jacobson to see how his health and start situation ends up. I’ll monitor how much Bennett plays and how he does for the upcoming Dallas/NYG bye weeks (I got burned on picking up Pittman a couple of weeks ago).
I also picked up D. Patten from NO this week since my WR’s seem to struggle with staying healthy and I have a couple sucky byes coming up.
Do you suggest I keep him on the bench and watch how he does (got burned by sitting Curtis the one week he got 40 points and then traded him away - Doh!) or should I play him instead of Moss? (I’m guessing not, but curious what you think of Patten v. Moss in general and the slowly awakening NO offense via the up/down Redskins offense).
Corey Koehler
October 21st, 2007 at
29Hey Mike,
Thanks for stopping. This to me seems like a gut call on your part.
Gut aside, without knowing your scoring system, I would be leaning towards Jones. To me running backs are always the better flex start start simply because they get more touches. Detroit does pass alot but Jones should get some of those catches. He is involved on the ground and through the air.
Cooley has been hot, I have him too, but he doesn’t get the same amount of work that Jones or any other “solid” starting back on a high powered offense will get.
With that said, if you have a gut feeling about Cooley, roll with your gut. Don’t let me stand in the way of your gut.
-Corey
Corey Koehler
October 21st, 2007 at
30Mario,
Tough call on Moss and Patten. To me I have to see more out of Patten before I have a solid opinion. Not sure if he is a once every three week producer or a weekly producer. I like Moss but only because I know so little about Patten.
Hope that helps. Good luck today.
-Corey
Nick
October 21st, 2007 at
31i have frank gore, marion barber, marshawn lynch, jerious norwood, and michael bennett, i can start two rb’s and a flex player, my WR’s are randy moss lee evans and vincent jackson, im obviously goin to use a running back for my flex, who should i start for running backs, and what waiver player should i pick up for a WR?
Corey Koehler
October 21st, 2007 at
32Nick,
Thanks for stopping. TOUGH CALL! I would do Gore and Lynch but they are all pretty even.As far as picking a WR who’s available?
Fantasy Sports Review » Blog Archive » Your Fantasy Football Start’em Sit’em and Sleepers for Week 7
April 16th, 2008 at
33[…] they could do to a rusty journeyman at home. Look for the Skins to just abuse Tim Rattay and the Arizona Cardinals this week. Perfect bye week defense. Hell, its possible they could be laying around on your waiver […]
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